Question 2

Examine the Factors that were to lead to war in 1914

Answer Plan

• Existing international morality and basic assumptions of statesmen in the period before 1914 – believed in the inevitability of competition between states for territory and trade. Great power status depended on willingness and ability to successfully wage war
• Scramble for overseas colonies from late 19^th century created incidents likely to provoke war
• Trade rivalry – rapid industrialisation. Protectionist tariffs against imports from rivals
• Security through alliances with other powers plus building up military and naval power – arms race. The 2 armed camps. Balance of power theory for most of 19^th century implied little more than resistance to any one potential aggressor. Entente of France, Russia, and Britain. Encirclement of Germany.
• National and racial hatred – amongst Slavs and between Slavs and Turks and Austro-Hungarians; French and Germans and German/British naval rivalry
• Sociological factors – rapid industrialisation, population growth, overcrowding in cities – leads to predisposition to violence. Repressive family structure of 19^th century affected offspring. Will to war – popular literature and song, paintings, music and intellectual writing. Jingoism. Allport’s Expectancy Theory
• Military strategy – general staffs must prepare for war; new technology made it essential to get in first blow. Germany had to prepare for war on 2 fronts against France and Russia. Schlieffen Plan involved German army moving through neutral Belgium to encircle French armies – this would involve conflict with Great Britain who guaranteed Belgian neutrality. Having huge armies and navies leads to tensions and the temptation to use them. Austrian Plan B (Serbia) Plan R (Russia) without latter German forces in East Prussia would be overwhelmed by Russian advance
• Defence timetables – in the event of mobilisation for war, there was a timetable for moving troops on the railways up to the borders. Unless chaos was to follow the plans had to be kept to (millions of men would be forming a bottleneck at the railheads. It was difficult to stop a war once mobilisation took place e.g. it was recognised that if Russia mobilised then war would be impossible to stop
• The Balkans – decline of Turkey gave scope for ambitions of various Balkan nationalities, Russia and Austria-Hungary. Latter had to resist independent Balkan states especially Serbia. Slavs looked to Russia as leader. German influence in Turkey. Continuing Turkish misgovernment of her Balkan subjects. Russian interest returns to Balkans after failures in Far East. Young Turk revolution threatened Balkan nationalities – possibility of rejuvenated Turkish rule. 1908 Austria (with German support) annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina – antagonises Serbia, Montenegro and Russia. First Balkan War – Austria alarmed by Serbian gains; latter angry that Austria prevented further gains. Murder of Archduke – Austria’s excuse for showdown with Serbia

Foreign policy objectives:

• Germany – none; kept changing and vacillating. One clear aim – avoid encirclement by hostile powers partly by alliance with Austria and by preserving Austrian power.
• Austria-Hungary – stop growth of Serbian power and its appeal to other Slavs. Prevent Russian expansion towards Straits and Constantinople and influence in Balkans.
• Russia – preserve access to Mediterranean and resist Austrian expansion which threaten this.
• France – Creation of alliances to help her escape the unavoidable fact that Germany was more populous and powerful. Opposed to any change in the balance of power in Balkans.
• Britain – 1.Europe: prevent any power becoming dominant in the West. 2.Overseas: prevent any threat to lines of communication with India
• How Great Britain and France drew closer – Anglo-French agreement 1904; Great British support for French at Algeciras Conference 1905 and opening of military conversations between Great Britain and France; German naval building programme designed at first to strengthen her bargaining position with Great Britain who was alarmed and led to intensified naval building race. Agadir Crisis – redisposition of British naval forces which in effect implied naval co-operation with France against Germany

Timetable of events after Sarajevo:

• 28^th June: Assassination of Franz Ferdinand
• 5^th July: Austrian Emperor appeals to Kaiser for support
• 6^th July: Bethmann-Hollweg gives support
• 8^th July: Kaiser gives support
• 23^rd July: Austrian ultimatum to Serbia
• 25^th July: Serbia accepts most of terms but is deliberately obscure
• 26^th July: Grey proposes Conference of Ambassadors to discuss crisis
• 27^th July: Bethmann-Hollweg rejects this – “We cannot drag Austria in her conflict with Serbia before a European tribunal”
• 28^th July: Austria declares war on Serbia (German pressure – speedy and resolute action best way to deter Russia; Austria couldn’t invade before 12^th)
• 29^th July: Russia mobilises against Austria
• 29^th July: Bethmann gets information that Great Britain will intervene if France is involved – tries to reverse German policy
• 30^th July: Russian general mobilisation ordered for 31^st
• 31^st July: Austrian general mobilisation
• 1^st August: German and French general mobilisation
• 1^st August: Germany declares war on Russia
• 2^nd August: German troops occupy Luxembourg
• 2^nd August: German ultimatum to Belgium
• 3^rd August: Germany declares war on France
• 3^rd August: Belgium rejects German demands
• 3^rd August: German-Turkish treaty concluded
• 3^rd August: British mobilisation
• 4^th August: Germans invade Belgium, British ultimatum to Germany
• 4^th August: Great Britain’s ultimatum expires at midnight – Great Britain and Germany at war