Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Birth rate is the amount of people who are born per 1000 of the population

Death rate is the amount of people who die per 1000 of the population

Population and the Planet

• Rate of population growth is expected to slow down.
• Population change is produced by natural change and migration change.
• Natural change depends on birth and death rate - More births than deaths means population increase and vice versa.
• Migration is movement of people into and out of an area or country. If immigrants exceed emmigrants, population increases.
• Change in total global population results only form natural change as migration just alters the distribution, not numbers of people on the planet.

Falling Death Rate

• modern medicines
• vaccines
• better healthcare - more doctors
• more hygienic housing
• cleaner drinking water
• better sewage disposal
• better diets
• lower infant mortality

Global population is increasing but distribution across the planet is changing.

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

The Demographic Transition Model attempts to explain the cycles that a population can go through. It is based on what has happened in the United Kingdom.

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Stage 1

• This is where the birth rate is high and the death rate is high.
• The population remains stable at this point
• Very few countries are now at this stage

Stage 2

• This is where the birth rates are high but the death rates begin to fall.
• This results in the population increasing.
• Lots of countries in the developing world are at this stage, due to improved medical care, but poor education.

Stage 3

• This is where the birth rate starts to fall. The growth of the population begins to slow down. Today many LEDC’s are at this stage as they are beginning to educate their people about birth control and more women are keen to go to work instead of having large families.

Stage 4

• Low birth rate and low death rates.
• Low birth rate and low death rates. At this point the population total begins to stabilise and most MEDC’s are at this stage.

Stage 5

• It is thought that some MEDC countries are now going through a stage 5 where the population has begun to decline. This leads to an aging population as people are not dying due to good medical care, but babies are also not being born due to good access to contraception and a stronger desire amongst women to work. In some countries such as the UK, the death rate is now higher than the birth rate due to unhealthy diets, pollution and lack of exercise.